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Cracks in the armor of the USD


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#1 DepthsAbove

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 08:52 PM

http://money.cnn.com...tes_currencies/

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- A growing number of states are seeking shiny new currencies made of silver and gold.

Worried that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. dollar are on the brink of collapse, lawmakers from 13 states, including Minnesota, Tennessee, Iowa, South Carolina and Georgia, are seeking approval from their state governments to either issue their own alternative currency or explore it as an option. Just three years ago, only three states had similar proposals in place.

"In the event of hyperinflation, depression, or other economic calamity related to the breakdown of the Federal Reserve System ... the State's governmental finances and private economy will be thrown into chaos," said North Carolina Republican Representative Glen Bradley in a currency bill he introduced last year.

Unlike individual communities, which are allowed to create their own currency -- as long as it is easily distinguishable from U.S. dollars -- the Constitution bans states from printing their own paper money or issuing their own currency. But it allows the states to make "gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts."

To the state legislators who are proposing state-issued currencies, that means gold and silver are fair game, said Edwin Vieira, an alternative currency proponent and attorney specializing in Constitutional law. And since gold has grown exponentially more valuable, while the U.S. dollar continues to lose ground, the notion has become increasingly appealing to state lawmakers, he said.

The state gold rush: Utah became the first state to introduce its own alternative currency when Governor Gary Herbert signed a bill into law last March that recognized gold and silver coins issued by the U.S. Mint as an acceptable form of payment. Under the law, the coins -- which include American Gold and Silver Eagles -- are treated the same as U.S. dollars for tax purposes, eliminating capital gains taxes.

Since the face value of some U.S.-minted gold and silver coins -- like the one-ounce, $50 American Gold Eagle coin -- is so much less than the metal value (one ounce of gold is now worth more than $1,700), the new law allows the coins to be exchanged at their market value, based on weight and fineness.

"A Utah citizen, for example, could contract with another to sell his car for 10 one-ounce gold coins (approximately $17,000), or an independent contractor could arrange to be compensated in gold coins," said Rich Danker, a project director at the American Principles Project, a conservative public policy group in Washington, D.C.

South Carolina Republican Representative Mike Pitts proposed a currency system that would allow people to use any kind of silver or gold coin -- whether it's a Philippine Peso or a South African Krugerrand -- based on weight and fineness. Pitts said in the bill, which currently has 12 co-sponsors, that the state is facing "an economic crisis of severe magnitude."

Republican representatives from Washington State followed suit in January, introducing a bill that would also allow any gold and silver coins to be considered legal tender based on metal values. Minnesota, Iowa, Georgia, Idaho and Indiana are also considering similar proposals.

Many of the bills would make it possible for residents to exchange the physical coins for goods and services, so you could use coins to buy anything from groceries to a car as long as the store chooses to accept them.

However, most people aren't going to walk around with such valuable coins in their pockets, said Vieira. Plus, calculating the value of the coins -- especially if they come from different parts of the globe and are of different sizes and shapes -- will get tricky.

It's more likely that the states will create electronic depositories and accounts for the coins to make transactions easier, when and if the initial bills are passed, he said.

Utah Gold & Silver Depository is already developing a system where customers could use debit cards linked to their gold holdings. When customers swipe their debit cards to make transactions, physical gold and silver coins would be transferred between accounts in privately-owned depositories (or vaults) based on the market value of the metals.

Before deciding on a specific form of currency, some states -- including Minnesota, Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina -- are considering proposals that would first require a committee to review their alternative currency plan.

The future of U.S. currency: The states' proposals have been gaining steam among Tea Partyers and Republicans, many of whom also endorse a nationwide return to the gold standard, which would require the U.S. dollar to be backed by gold reserves.

Tea Party "father" Ron Paul is sponsoring the "Free Competition in Currency Act," which would allow states to introduce their own currencies, and rival Newt Gingrich is calling for a commission to look at how the country can get back to the gold standard.

But it will be the individual states that could really get the ball rolling, said Vieira. Even if several of the current proposals get killed, the introduction of so many bills at the state level is drawing national attention to the issue, he said.
Funny money: 11 local currencies

Of all the state proposals circulating right now, Republican-controlled states including South Carolina, Georgia, Idaho and Indiana have the best chance of passing their proposed bills this year, said American Principles Project's Danker. If just one or two states implement an alternative currency, it could have a Domino effect, he said.

"I think we could get a couple passed in this legislative session, and that would show this is mainstream, popular and it would be a justification for more of the risk-averse states for doing this," he said.

There are, of course, many people who think the recent push for alternative state currencies should be stopped in its tracks. David Parsley, a professor of economics and finance at Vanderbilt University, said he thinks state-issued currencies are a "terrible" idea.

"Having 50 Feds" could debase the U.S. dollar and even potentially lead the country into default, he said. "The single currency in the United States is working just fine," said Parsley. "I have no idea why anyone would want to destroy something so successful -- unless they actually wanted to destroy the country."

Weight * Fineness = Value is the way to go, so I'm surprised that several states are actually using that exact verbiage. It's a very savvy move by the states, because it encourages the influx of precious metals/PM debit systems to their state, which can only be a good thing in the years to come.

Of course countries that issue global currencies hate the idea of a competing hard currency that's also money, because 95% of their playbook goes out the window.
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#2 nemt

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 08:56 PM

They should call goldline and mention Glenn Beck's name for a discount.
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#3 DepthsAbove

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 08:59 PM

For an ass raping is more like it.
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#4 Hans

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:00 PM

Good luck trying to exchange gold at any retailer.

Completely worthless and outdated monetary standard.
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#5 DepthsAbove

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:04 PM

Did you even read it? The most likely way forward is for a depository to have the metal in your account, and you can transact with it electronically. There could even be a conversion service, where if I want to pay in silver, and the grocery store still wants USD, silver comes out of my account, and USD goes into their account, with a small fee being paid by one or both sides. The laws these states are proposing would help make that a reality.
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#6 nemt

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:05 PM

fiat legal tender in roo-ins
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#7 Hans

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:10 PM

View PostDepthsAbove, on 05 February 2012 - 09:04 PM, said:

Did you even read it? The most likely way forward is for a depository to have the metal in your account, and you can transact with it electronically. There could even be a conversion service, where if I want to pay in silver, and the grocery store still wants USD, silver comes out of my account, and USD goes into their account, with a small fee being paid by one or both sides. The laws these states are proposing would help make that a reality.

And what about when Gold loses 90% of its value like it did in the 80s?

It doesn't make sense to have a currency whose value is based upon wild speculation and that drops and rises with worse volatility than most stocks.

Sure, your earning power with the USD is eroded via inflation, but inflation right now is quite low, and thats preferable to having money stored in a metal that, at best, matches inflation over 30 year periods, but tends to rise and fall dramatically. For immediate purchases, it makes no sense tying transactions to a wildly volatile and speculative asset.

Add on conversion/transaction fees, and hell, Gold could lose big to the USD for normal transactions.

Edited by Hans, 05 February 2012 - 09:15 PM.

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#8 DepthsAbove

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:17 PM

View PostHans, on 05 February 2012 - 09:10 PM, said:

And what about when Gold loses 90% of its value like it did in the 80s?

And what about when fiat currency loses 100% of its value, like the average one does every 27 years?


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#9 Hans

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:20 PM

That's why I put long-term savings into investments that have a much higher return than gold (like stocks and bonds), but pay down immediate needs with USD.

Same reason why short-term investments never yield much, and why you should never place short-term money (needed in the next 1-3 years) into risky assets like stocks and gold.

Keeping short term cash in an account whose value erodes 2-3% each year is preferable to investing that money into Gold with the possibility of it losing 20-60%+ in any given year.

Edited by Hans, 05 February 2012 - 09:38 PM.

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#10 DepthsAbove

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:27 PM

We're not talking about long term savings, we're talking about how transactions could occur. A store would take a silver coin long before they'd take a share of Coca-Cola or a U.S. Bond. That said, metals have been a store of value forever...they can't go out of business, get inflated away overnight, be on the wrong side of a war, etc.

If prices were denominated in gold/silver, you'd see a high degree of price stability, and hopefully deflation (your money buying more over time).
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#11 Hans

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:35 PM

:lol

I swear, the gold bug advocates are financially retarded.

Metals are highly speculative investments. They don't produce earnings or dividends, their value is derived purely as a speculative play against other assets (such as stocks and bonds, or the perceived fear of inflation), and as a result they have wild fluctuations in price. And they are not immune to having their value completely eroded through changes in either supply or demand. Gold isn't even particularly useful as an industrial commodity. It's used in jewelry. It looks shiny. About all it's good for is looking at.

Why would I want to put my money into Gold where the downside risk is much greater than the USD? Silver came shooting up not too long ago, only to come crashing down by 50%. Why would I want to have my transactions tied to something that has such wild volatility?

Yes, we all know that the USD is a losing asset, long-term. But the short term risk is only 2-3%, and I incur no transaction costs because I don't have to convert gold into USD.

Edited by Hans, 05 February 2012 - 09:36 PM.

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#12 Fatghost28

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:48 PM

Why would we assume the Fed would let the USD and their position collapse without using their tools (ie interest rates) to protect the status quo?

The Fed has a dual mandate of employment and inflation control, but underlying that is an assumption the basic economic system is maintained.

At the first sign of USD collapse into hyperinflation the Fed will raise rates like crazy and gold will get crushed anyway.
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#13 Fatghost28

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:50 PM

View PostDepthsAbove, on 05 February 2012 - 09:27 PM, said:

get inflated away overnight,

If prices were denominated in gold/silver, you'd see a high degree of price stability, and hopefully deflation (your money buying more over time).

Gold can drop in value over night. So can silver. Hell look at the roller coaster for silver in the past year.
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#14 DepthsAbove

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 11:05 PM

View PostFatghost28, on 05 February 2012 - 09:48 PM, said:

Why would we assume the Fed would let the USD and their position collapse without using their tools (ie interest rates) to protect the status quo?

The Fed has a dual mandate of employment and inflation control, but underlying that is an assumption the basic economic system is maintained.

At the first sign of USD collapse into hyperinflation the Fed will raise rates like crazy and gold will get crushed anyway.

If they raised rates significantly (where they would need to go), the U.S. wouldn't be able to meet its debt obligations, which undermines the idea of a maintained economic system. At that point, I really think the only way to maintain the status quo would be to enter into a new and bigger war.
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#15 Hans

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 11:06 PM

Why would they need to raise rates significantly when inflation levels are below historical averages?
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#16 Fatghost28

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 11:34 PM

View PostDepthsAbove, on 05 February 2012 - 11:05 PM, said:

If they raised rates significantly (where they would need to go), the U.S. wouldn't be able to meet its debt obligations, which undermines the idea of a maintained economic system. At that point, I really think the only way to maintain the status quo would be to enter into a new and bigger war.

Most of the US debt issued is issued in long term bonds at a fixed coupon that is super low for 10-30 years. New debt issues would be at higher rates but new debt issue is small compared to the existing pool.

And any costs of higher rates would be deemed to be preferable to the costs of hyperinflation in this scenario.

Edited by Fatghost28, 05 February 2012 - 11:35 PM.

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#17 DepthsAbove

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 11:55 PM

View PostFatghost28, on 05 February 2012 - 11:34 PM, said:

Most of the US debt issued is issued in long term bonds at a fixed coupon that is super low for 10-30 years. New debt issues would be at higher rates but new debt issue is small compared to the existing pool.

And any costs of higher rates would be deemed to be preferable to the costs of hyperinflation in this scenario.

Do you have figures to back that up? I'd say most of the debt bought by other nations is very short term. Of course Federal Reserve primary dealers are obligated to bid at debt auctions, but that doesn't mean it fixes any problems.
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#18 Fatghost28

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 12:12 AM

View PostDepthsAbove, on 05 February 2012 - 11:55 PM, said:

Do you have figures to back that up? I'd say most of the debt bought by other nations is very short term. Of course Federal Reserve primary dealers are obligated to bid at debt auctions, but that doesn't mean it fixes any problems.

http://www.zerohedge...e-crisis-levels

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The conclusion is simple: very soon what the Fed does on the front end will have increasingly less of an impact on the interest rate the US pays on its borrowings.


http://seekingalpha....-is-on-the-rise

The data here shows the average maturity is about 4-5 years

http://www.zerohedge...mps-8-year-high

This reinforces the average maturity of about 5 years and notes it is trending higher.

5 years isn't super long term but it's enough to weather a short, sharp shock in rates, similar to what happened in the early 80s.
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#19 DepthsAbove

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 12:39 AM

But who even holds it for 5 years? If they couldn't pawn it off on someone else, they wouldn't even do 3 years. But in any event, a 4-5 year average, when our debt is skyrocketing, is super short term. Pretty soon, that will mean we're having to recycle something like 5 trillion a year.
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#20 Hans

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 12:41 AM

It doesn't matter if they pawn it off. The government pays the coupon rate of the bond that was issued and is guaranteed that rate for the duration of the bond.
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#21 DepthsAbove

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 12:47 AM

I'm looking at it from the purchasing side. If the paper was largely 10-30 years, bond holders would be kinda stuck. If the debt is 5 years (or even T-Bills, much shorter), the government doesn't have much wiggle room.

The tolerances are shrinking everywhere.
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#22 Fatghost28

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 02:20 AM

View PostDepthsAbove, on 06 February 2012 - 12:47 AM, said:

I'm looking at it from the purchasing side. If the paper was largely 10-30 years, bond holders would be kinda stuck. If the debt is 5 years (or even T-Bills, much shorter), the government doesn't have much wiggle room.

The tolerances are shrinking everywhere.

If you read those articles you'd see the trend is that US debt maturities are increasing, not decreasing, as they have been for years prior to the financial crisis.
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#23 DepthsAbove

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 02:27 AM

The 08/09 crash drove up demand for bonds, and it's still artificially high, considering the yield. It's the same thing that happened in housing, except they're flipping junk bonds, instead of hugely marked up homes.
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#24 Hans

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 02:29 AM

By the time yields go higher, the economy will likely be kicking into high gear, and government revenues will be higher.
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#25 DepthsAbove

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 02:41 AM

That's very optimistic, imo.

Again, I think the only "way out" (pushing off the pain more than 10 years) once it really unravels will be war.
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#26 elgordo

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 02:46 AM

All I know is normal interest rates be at 3.75, and I'm looking at a new jumbo property with a 4.25 rate.

fffffuuuuuuu

y'all scientists in the lab need get on dis and pick up some land.
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#27 Hans

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 02:48 AM

Property is an illiquid, non-diversified investment, and has generally poor returns especially if you need to borrow money to finance it.

I just need a new job that pays me 700k per year like elgordo

Edited by Hans, 06 February 2012 - 02:48 AM.

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#28 elgordo

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 03:06 AM

I hear you man- but I if you can buy in a good area (metro or vacation spots), and rent em' out to the masses, I think now is a baller time to do that.

Everyone wants to rent, so it's a buyer's market.

dat rate
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#29 Hans

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 03:12 AM

do you ever worry that your business may go under? didn't you have a number of failed businesses? how did you strike it rich with your current gig? really interested in trying to make more money on the side mang

if you want to run a real estate business, now is pretty cheap....but assuming you find regular tenants to cover the cost of your mortgage and all other expenses, over 30 years what you get back is the principal invested + inflation. Whereas stocks should be worth anywhere from 6-12x that original investment in real terms

Edited by Hans, 06 February 2012 - 03:12 AM.

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#30 elgordo

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 03:28 AM

Not gonna lie man- I worry about my business all the time.

Is it just a fad- will it die out in 6 months, etc. Much of your paranoia posts have driven me to diversify my products and sites.

Did 120+ in January, but February looks really different and I'm just glad I've been stacking.

I'm completely uneducated on stocks and high finance- the closest I get to that is real estate. I've had some moderate success there so I keep eyeing newer / bigger property opportunities to take the heat off my normal biz. Have 2 right now but luckily they both rent at profit.

I wish I had the finance background mang
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